Nate Dailey
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Research

Original frameworks and the Collegium dissertation program

Three frameworks I developed on decision speed, encrypted data sharing, and lunar navigation, and a research program in which AI agents write dissertations on space and defend them before an examining board.

Original frameworks

  • Decision-Velocity Dividend

    How faster decisions on board spacecraft shorten missions and save money

    The economic value created when radiation-hardened computers running AI on board a spacecraft can make decisions in milliseconds instead of waiting for the ground. Shorter decision loops shorten commercial lunar and low Earth orbit mission timelines, which saves capital and lets a program start sooner.

  • COSMIC Framework

    Sharing satellite conjunction data in encrypted form without exposing orbits

    Cryptographic Operations for Space Monitoring and Information Circulation. It combines fully homomorphic encryption with post-quantum cryptography so that several operators can analyze close-approach data together without showing each other their proprietary orbit information.

  • Cislunar PNT Governance

    Options for certifying navigation signals around the Moon

    No one today certifies that a navigation signal around the Moon is accurate and safe to use, least of all when the satellite was built by someone else under a jurisdiction outside your agreements. This work sets out that gap and the options for closing it.

Collegium, a program where AI agents write and defend dissertations on space

Collegium is a research program I designed and chair. AI research agents each take one question about the space enterprise, build a sourced body of evidence, carry out a method, and write the result up as a dissertation. An examining board then tests it and looks for errors. Only work that passes the defense, and that I ratify, is counted.

876Research papers and monographs produced in the program, in six topic areas
48Dissertations defended and ratified in 2026
12Full-length dissertations of 61,000 to 67,000 words

How a dissertation is examined

  1. 01

    Proposal

    The agent states one testable contribution and names a real, obtainable dataset. A charter without real data is sent back.

  2. 02

    Questioning from other viewpoints

    A panel of perspectives drawn from very different schools of thought questions the charter before any research begins, so the evidence search is not just the agent restating its own claim.

  3. 03

    Research

    Literature review, method, and analysis, with the data, variable construction, and full model output kept in a form anyone can audit.

  4. 04

    Defense

    Six examiners: a chair, a methodologist, an empiricist, an archivist, a domain examiner, and an external examiner. The archivist checks citations against the full source text, and the external examiner tests whether the contribution is real. The archivist and the external examiner can each reject a dissertation on their own, and the chair cannot overrule them.

  5. 05

    Ratification

    I review every verdict before a dissertation is accepted. Verified citations join a shared ledger that later candidates draw on.

Each dissertation is a research edition written by an AI agent and examined by the board. None is submitted for a degree, and none is counted among my published papers.

Research portfolio by topic

876 research papers and monographs across six topic areas.

Space policy, economics, security, and sustainability 493
Deep space communications, exploration, and robotics 239
International affairs and allied space cooperation 75
Space cybersecurity and autonomy assurance 29
Space enterprise evidence reviews 24
Space nutrition and agriculture in microgravity 16

Ratified dissertations

First cohort, on NASA programs, deep space operations, and Earth science

Ratified June 2026 · 12 dissertations

Twelve full-length dissertations, about 61,000 to 67,000 words each. One passed outright; eleven passed with binding revisions.

Title Method Verdict
Decision and Authorization Latency in NASA Programs: A Cliometric Analysis of Program Cost, Schedule, and Mission Cadence, 1958 to 2026 Cliometric analysis Pass with revision
Deep Space Network as a Queue: Contention, Wait-Time, and the Science-Throughput Penalty of Antenna Scheduling Queueing model Pass with revision
Does Flight Heritage Buy Reliability? A Cross-Mission Regression of Realized On-Orbit Failure Rates Against Heritage and Parts-Class Survival regression Pass
The Economic Impact of Spacecraft Down-Mass and Orbital Reentry Operations on the U.S. National Airspace System Economic model Pass with revision
Cost-Overrun Hazards in Earth-Observing Missions: A Competing-Risks Model Separating Instrument-Driven from Launch-Driven Slip Competing risks Pass with revision
Science Productivity of Earth-Observation Data Policy: A Difference-in-Differences Study of Open-Data Release on Mission Citation Yield Difference in differences Pass with revision
Retrieval-Accuracy Returns to Instrument Investment in Earth-Science Radiometers: A Hedonic Regression of Validated Science Accuracy on Cost Drivers Hedonic regression Pass with revision
Learning Curves for Onboard Autonomy: Does Each Successive Autonomous-Operations Flight Demonstration Lower the Cost-to-Field of the Next? Learning curve Pass with revision
Surface Mobility Productivity Across the Mars Rover Fleet: What Drives Drive-Distance and Sols-per-Meter? Descriptive econometrics Pass with revision
Fault-Management Maturity and Mission-Anomaly Survival: A Hazard Model of Safe-Mode Entries and Recovery Outcomes Hazard model Pass with revision
EDL Heritage and Landing-Success Hazard: Does Reuse of Flight-Proven Entry-Descent-Landing Architecture Reduce Landing-Failure Risk? Survival analysis Pass with revision
Landing-Ellipse Contraction as a Technology Learning Curve: Quantifying the Precision-Landing Improvement Rate Across Mars Missions Learning curve Pass with revision

Space cybersecurity and autonomy assurance

Ratified September 2026

Twenty-four dissertations on cryptographic agility, the provenance of space traffic data, delegated authority under cyber ambiguity, deception in positioning and timing, supply-chain provenance, and the absence of cyber from governance instruments, with five systematic reviews behind them.

Spectrum and space licensing

Ratified October 2026 · 12 dissertations

Twelve shorter dissertations built on finite examples, formal counterexamples, and synthetic experiments. Three passed outright; nine passed with binding revisions.

Title Verdict
Robust combinatorial coordination of cislunar C2 and communications Pass with revision
Transferable interference compatibility envelopes for changing space missions Pass with revision
Lunar communications and radio astronomy coexistence under cumulative emissions Pass with revision
Auditable technical review assistance for space licensing applications Pass
Causal and process explanations of satellite licensing delay Pass
Versioned machine-readable rules and traceable spectrum determinations Pass with revision
Resilient third-party relay services for spacecraft TT&C Pass with revision
Translating FCC and ITU requirements into reproducible cross-jurisdiction evidence Pass with revision
Fair and incentive-compatible access to shared space spectrum Pass with revision
Detecting emerging spectrum demand from filings and technical signals Pass
Quantifying propagation of uncertainty from technical studies to spectrum decisions Pass with revision
Independent assurance of AI-accelerated spectrum engineering evidence Pass with revision

Findings and evidence on the Collegium site

Dr. Nate Dailey · SpaceSherpa

 

Views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the positions of The MITRE Corporation, its sponsors, or the U.S. Government.